This weekend, we have a 13-fight PPV card in Atlanta. DraftKings has some strong contests for us to acquire a lot of money from this week and that I can not wait to chase these big prizes. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $30k belongs to 1st place with a total of $150k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first location cost and that $175k will probably be distributed between all 100 entries that match. I will attempt to get my 2nd and 3rd chairs this week if at all possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be real bankroll suckers therefore be careful chasing those overly hard. I’ll probably stick to the very best GPP this week and throw 100 or so entries at that $30k prize, and then I will likely have a few shots in the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a fantastic amount of play into money games.
With that said, let’s get into a few plays I enjoy this week along with my fade of this week:
Money Game play of the week — STACK — Max Holloway $9,100 and Dustin Poirier $7,100
This was the first thing I did when wages were published. I put these two fighters in my cash lineup and I began building from there. I expect this to be one of the greatest fights of all time and I think we get ~200 total DK points from this fight, and the guaranteed win. I’m ok with taking the reduction when I can guarantee myself over 100 issues with the stack, but I think 150 is a safe projection for this fight and if we could lock up 3 additional wins we should win the vast majority of our cash games. Like I always say, we don’t need 6 wins for money games so there’s really no need to pursue it. Just lock in a safe lineup that you believe will score more than 400 total points and you should acquire more H2Hs than you lose.
GPP drama of the week — Nikita Krylov — $8,200
Krylov is my GPP drama of the week because he is the definition of boom or bust. He either loses or scores more than 100 DK points. That’s what we desire in GPPs. This is not a sure pick in him winning it is just a shot at his ceiling that is what we look for in the huge GPPs where we’re trying to win the top $30k prize. Krylov has finished all 24 of his wins and he’s only seen the 3rd round once in his profession. This is a good fight to target on either side, but I am taking Krylov for the win and that I have a good amount of vulnerability to him this weekend.
Underdog drama of the week — Dustin Poirier — $7,100
I had to put Poirier here. I adore his floor and I believe he’s a live underdog. However, IF he wins, he will 100 percent end up on the 1st place lineup at his 7.1k price-tag. He is going to score over 100 DK points when he is able to find a success here and that’s what we are chasing in GPPs. Even in the event that you believe Max is going to dominate Poirier I think you ought to possess at least 1 hedge lineup utilizing Poirier, which can be an all-purpose struggle for me. Every lineup I construct will start with Dustin or Max and I will go on out there. Load up on this battle and make sure you find any Poirier exposure.
Fade of the week — Boston Salmon ($8,600)
It was tough to select a fade of the week this week because I believe that you can make an argument for rostering everyone. I wanted to choose a popular though and I feel that the favored with among the reduced ceilings is Salmon. I’m picking him to win but he will not be heading for almost any takedowns and when he does not get a finish he likely doesn’t pay off his $8.6k price tag. I need at least 10x (86-points) when I’m rostering someone and I don’t see him getting that unless he gets a knockout. Taha is tough so that I really don’t see the knockout happening. I think Salmon does get a unanimous decision win here but it probably scores in the 70’s and that will not win us the big $30k. That is why he’s my fade of this week.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every struggle on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link too. I’m 66-41 to get +220.23u (+$22,023) since May 19th on Premium Plays)
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